BOUNCEBACK EXPECTED IN THE EARLIER PART OF THE WEEK
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A sharp fall in oil price triggered a solid rally on the bourses at the initial part of the week but a dip in global equities and local political concerns act as a spoilsport and wiped off all the initial gains. Uncertainty over the Indo-US nuclear deal came back to haunt the bulls as reports emerged that nuclear-deal could fall and US will terminate the agreement if India conducts a fresh nuclear test. Though, inflation receded to 12.34%, it failed to enthuse the bulls as it continues to remain above the RBIís tolerance level for the sixth straight month. Finally, the 30-share BSE Sensex lost 80.70 points or 0.55% to 14,483.83 in the week. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 7.70 points or 0.17% to 4352.30.
Despite sliding oil prices, stocks across the globe fell sharply, last week, on global economic growth worries. Wall Street suffered its worst decline in more than two months on Thursday, 4 September 2008, hurt by more signs of weakness in the labour market and the growth fears. In Europe, investors fretted over European Central Bank projections that showed an increase in inflation forecasts and a cut in growth expectations compared with their last prognosis three months ago. And coupled with domestic political concerns over Indo-US nuclear deal weighs on the domestic bourses with a latest controversy sparked by the disclosure of correspondence between the Bush administration and US Congress that the Indo-US nuclear pact would be off if India conducted a nuclear test.
Banking stocks were in the thick of action as lower inflation improved near term sentiment for the beaten down sector. Bank shares witnessed choppy trade due to alternate bouts of buying and selling. BSE’s banking sector index Bankex jumped 163.16 points or 2.33% at 7,172.85 in the week. Power and capital goods stocks were the other major gainers. Metal stocks under performed as steelmakers like Ispat, Essar, JSW and Uttam Galva are learnt to have slashed metal prices by up to Rs 2,000 per ton in line with sharp fall in metal prices globally. Gujarat-based government companies like GMDC, Gujarat Alkalies, GSFC, GSPL and GNFC had a rough week after state government asked them to set aside30% of their PBT for social causes.
Sliding oil prices calmed inflation concerns. Oil price declined sharply in response to less damage from Hurricane Gustav than the oil industry feared. Light, sweet crude for October 2008 delivery settled at $106.70, its lowest level in five months. A softening of inflation for a second consecutive week has raised hopes that we may in the last lap of the interest rate hike cycle. Annual inflation rose 12.34% in the year through 23 August 2008, lower than previous week’s 12.40% rise. Inflation, however, remains far above central bank’s target level of 7% towards the year ending March 2009.
In the coming week, market will cheer the NSG green signal to India which the market was waiting for too long. The 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) has approved a US plan to engage in nuclear trade with India this Saturday. Following the green signal by the NSG that will cement the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation, India has finally come out of the 34-year old nuclear apartheid. The approval came after almost three days of meeting in Vienna on Saturday. The NSG meet was called to minimise any damage to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which India has not joined. The market will also react to a crucial US job data due on Friday, 5 September 2008, after Indian markets closed. A sharp slide in global crude oil prices and reports of a satisfactory distribution of monsoon bodes well for equities. So having these bullish ammunitions in store, market men may expect a bounceback in the market in the coming week. But such bounceback may be shortlived due to decelarating economic growth, which is haunting the market for a pretty longtime.
Technical View: On short term basis 14400 -14600 is a support zone below which it could test 14050 and 13700. Volatility will continue to be high for some days.
STOCK TO WATCH OUT- ROLTA INDIA
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Saturday, August 30, 2008
INDIAN STOCK MARKET REVIEW: 1ST SEPT 2008
MARKET MAY EDGE HIGHER WITH POSITIVE CUES
Better than expected inflation numbers and in-line Q1 GDP growth helped the bulls to take charge and the Indian equities managed to close with modest gains in a volatile week. Frontline indices reacted positively to fall in inflation and witnessed sharp run up despite slow down in Q1 GDP growth. Rate sensitives, infrastructure, oil, metal and technology stocks led the rally. Midcap and small cap stocks also sailed in the same boat. Sensex rose 163.04 points or 1.13% to 14,564.53 in the week ended Friday, 29 August 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty gained 32.55 points or 0.75% at 4,360 in the week.
The market started the week with marginal gains on falling crude oil prices and reports of near-normal monsoon. The market slumped later on expectations of higher weekly inflation figures. However, the market ended the week on a buoyant note as inflation fell for the first time in 28 weeks. Inflation declined to 12.40% for the week ended August 16 as against 12.63% due to lower prices of some minerals and fuels.
Gross Domestic Products (GDP) growth has declined to 7.9% in the first quarter as against 9.2% in same period of last year and 8.8% in previous quarter. These numbers were not a big disappointment for markets as numbers were in line with analysts' expectations and seemed like already factored in by markets.
In the coming week, marketmen expects that gains will be extended further however a further rise in crude oil prices may act as a spoilsport for the stock markets. Also the market will closely watch developments on the Indo-US nuclear deal in the coming week.
Technical View: Sensex made a low of around 14000 close to the 50 % retracements. Inflation and crude cues are giving a positive cue to markets for a while but the range bound markets could remain for some more time to come.
Stock to Watch: IDFC, RCOM, CENTURYTEX.
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Better than expected inflation numbers and in-line Q1 GDP growth helped the bulls to take charge and the Indian equities managed to close with modest gains in a volatile week. Frontline indices reacted positively to fall in inflation and witnessed sharp run up despite slow down in Q1 GDP growth. Rate sensitives, infrastructure, oil, metal and technology stocks led the rally. Midcap and small cap stocks also sailed in the same boat. Sensex rose 163.04 points or 1.13% to 14,564.53 in the week ended Friday, 29 August 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty gained 32.55 points or 0.75% at 4,360 in the week.
The market started the week with marginal gains on falling crude oil prices and reports of near-normal monsoon. The market slumped later on expectations of higher weekly inflation figures. However, the market ended the week on a buoyant note as inflation fell for the first time in 28 weeks. Inflation declined to 12.40% for the week ended August 16 as against 12.63% due to lower prices of some minerals and fuels.
Gross Domestic Products (GDP) growth has declined to 7.9% in the first quarter as against 9.2% in same period of last year and 8.8% in previous quarter. These numbers were not a big disappointment for markets as numbers were in line with analysts' expectations and seemed like already factored in by markets.
In the coming week, marketmen expects that gains will be extended further however a further rise in crude oil prices may act as a spoilsport for the stock markets. Also the market will closely watch developments on the Indo-US nuclear deal in the coming week.
Technical View: Sensex made a low of around 14000 close to the 50 % retracements. Inflation and crude cues are giving a positive cue to markets for a while but the range bound markets could remain for some more time to come.
Stock to Watch: IDFC, RCOM, CENTURYTEX.
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Wednesday, August 27, 2008
INDIAN STOCK MARKET REVIEW: 25TH AUG 2008
GLOBAL CUES TO SET THE MARKET TREND
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Weak global cues kept the market under pressure and the Indian equities closed lower for the second consecutive week. A 16-year high inflation, sudden spurt in crude oil prices above US$121/ bbl and sluggish trend across global markets kept the bulls on the sidelines. Shares in the interest rate sensitive sectors like banking, real estate and automobile witnessed selling pressure the most. The barometer index BSE Sensex declined 322.69 points or 2.19% to 14,401.49 in the week ended Friday, 22 August 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 103.25 points or 2.33% at 4327.45 in the week.
Selling continued across the interest-rate sensitive sectors like real estate, bank and auto, as fresh fears emerged over a possible rate hike after inflation surged to 12.63%. The wholesale price index rose 12.63% in 12 months to 9 August 2008, above the previous week's annual rise of 12.44%. With rising inflation and possible revision in interest rates leads to fears of a slowdown in the local economy which dragged the capital goods stocks down. Power and IT stocks were the other major casualties while pharma stocks provided some cushion. Action was seen in fertilizers stocks after the finance ministry approved a cash payment of Rs220bn as subsidy for fertilizer companies.
In the coming week the market may remain under pressure after inflation recorded fastest rise in more than 16 years in early August 2008, increasing the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates again. With no major key events scheduled in the forthcoming week, the market will closely watch global stock market cues. But it may turn volatile on account of expiry of August 2008 derivatives contracts on Thursday, 28 August 2008.
Market will also closely watch developments on the Indo-US nuclear deal. A two-day meeting of the 45 countries of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) began in Vienna on Thursday, 21 August 2008. A green signal by the NSG is required for the deal to proceed to the US Congress for final ratification.
But above all how oil behaves over the next few weeks will be something which is going to affect the market in a critical way. If oil prices tend to move up again, we will get those same old fears of inflation. We will again have worries of interest rate increase, which could be much sharper than expected.
Technical View: One should now be watching 14950 and 15800 as a trigger. A rising wedge formation as shown if broken has always resulted into dips /cracks on the index. Technically supports are placed at 13700/14050. Till markets don’t give a close below 13700 it could remain in a tight range with an upside cap around 15500-15800 for some time.
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Weak global cues kept the market under pressure and the Indian equities closed lower for the second consecutive week. A 16-year high inflation, sudden spurt in crude oil prices above US$121/ bbl and sluggish trend across global markets kept the bulls on the sidelines. Shares in the interest rate sensitive sectors like banking, real estate and automobile witnessed selling pressure the most. The barometer index BSE Sensex declined 322.69 points or 2.19% to 14,401.49 in the week ended Friday, 22 August 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 103.25 points or 2.33% at 4327.45 in the week.
Selling continued across the interest-rate sensitive sectors like real estate, bank and auto, as fresh fears emerged over a possible rate hike after inflation surged to 12.63%. The wholesale price index rose 12.63% in 12 months to 9 August 2008, above the previous week's annual rise of 12.44%. With rising inflation and possible revision in interest rates leads to fears of a slowdown in the local economy which dragged the capital goods stocks down. Power and IT stocks were the other major casualties while pharma stocks provided some cushion. Action was seen in fertilizers stocks after the finance ministry approved a cash payment of Rs220bn as subsidy for fertilizer companies.
In the coming week the market may remain under pressure after inflation recorded fastest rise in more than 16 years in early August 2008, increasing the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates again. With no major key events scheduled in the forthcoming week, the market will closely watch global stock market cues. But it may turn volatile on account of expiry of August 2008 derivatives contracts on Thursday, 28 August 2008.
Market will also closely watch developments on the Indo-US nuclear deal. A two-day meeting of the 45 countries of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) began in Vienna on Thursday, 21 August 2008. A green signal by the NSG is required for the deal to proceed to the US Congress for final ratification.
But above all how oil behaves over the next few weeks will be something which is going to affect the market in a critical way. If oil prices tend to move up again, we will get those same old fears of inflation. We will again have worries of interest rate increase, which could be much sharper than expected.
Technical View: One should now be watching 14950 and 15800 as a trigger. A rising wedge formation as shown if broken has always resulted into dips /cracks on the index. Technically supports are placed at 13700/14050. Till markets don’t give a close below 13700 it could remain in a tight range with an upside cap around 15500-15800 for some time.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
INDIAN STOCK MARKET WEEKLY REVIEW
WEEKLY UPDATE: 18th AUGUST 2008 - 22nd AUGUST 2008
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Market lost the steam after a five day rally to edge lower in truncated week due to poor industrial growth, fall in car sales after 33-months and rebound in crude oil prices from a 3-month low. The sentiment turned bearish after the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Committee (EAC) trimmed its forecast for GDP growth in FY09 to 7.7%. It also expects inflation to shoot up to 13% shortly before it softens. The BSE Sensex and the S&P CNX Nifty settled below their psychologically important levels of 15,000 and 4,500 respectively. The barometer index BSE Sensex declined 443.64 points or 2.92% to 14,724.18 in the week ended Thursday, 14 August 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 98.80 points or 2.18% at 4,430.70 in the week.
Interest-rate sensitive sectors bore the brunt of the selling after EAC indicated a slowdown in GDP growth and its expectations of higher inflation. Also, concerns about shrinking economic growth in key global economies and continued financial sector woes had an adverse impact on the sentiment. Slowdown in industrial production hit the capital goods stocks. Metal and power stocks were the other major losers. IT stocks bucked the negative trend to close higher after the Rupee depreciated to 42.90 against the US Dollar.
Inflation had hit 12.44% and remains a major concern for the central bank. High inflation will mean that tight monetary policy stance by the central bank may continue. On 29 July 2008, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), at its quarterly policy review late month raised repo rate by 50 basis points to a seven-year high of 9% to curb inflation and dampen inflationary expectations. RBI also raised the cash reserve ratio (CRR), the proportion of funds that banks must keep on deposit with it, by 25 basis points to 9%. And this relentless monetary tightening by the RBI has finally started to catch up with industrial growth. A slowdown in the manufacturing sector pulled down India's industrial growth in June 2008 to 5.4% from 8.9% a year ago. This is however higher than 4.1% growth as per revised figures in May 2008. The index of industrial production (IIP) went up 5.2% in Q1 June 2008 compared to 10.3% in Q1 June 2007.
In the coming week, sentiment is likely to remain edgy in the near term dampened by a series of negative news. Car sales recorded a dip in sales for the first time in 33 months as interest rates, inflationary pressures and hike in fuel prices dented demand. Passenger car sales declined 1.7% to 87,724 units in July 2008 over July 2007, according to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. With no key events scheduled in the forthcoming week, the Indian stock market will closely watch global stock markets for direction. However, on the positive side, a further fall in crude oil prices may boost the sentiment. Crude oil prices have declined sharply from record high $147.27 a barrel hit on 11 July 2008. US crude settled below $114 on Friday, 15 August 2008 due to stronger US dollar.
From 21st August, NSE will introduce 39 new stocks to the F&O segment. They are ABG Shipyard, Akruti City, Asian Paints, Balaji Telefilms, Concor, Core Projects, Deccan Chronicle, Dish TV, Everonn, Firstsource, GSPL, GTL Infrastructures, HCL Infosystems, Indiabulls Real Estate, ICSA, KLG Systel, KS Oils, MIC Electronics, Mindtree Consulting, Mercator Lines, Monnet Ispat, MRF, Nava Bharat Venturs, Noida Toll, Opto, Orbit Corp, Prism Cem, PTC, Reliance Ind Infra, Sintex, SREI, Thermax, Torrent Power, TV18, UCO Bk, UTV, Voltamp, Walchandnagar.
Marketmen will also watch the review of PN notes by SEBI. It is anticipated that SEBI may extend the period for unwinding PNs, on underlying derivatives from 18 months to 24 months.
Technical View: Sensex has given a weekly close below 15050 and broken the bearish Rising Wedge pattern. Therefore, it can test the previous low of 12500 again in the coming days as a measured objective of the Wedge. However, multiple support levels exist for Sensex at the region 14400-14600. below that 14000-14050 and 13650-13700 are the levels to watch. For Nifty, 4370-4390 may provide a bit of cushion below that levels are 4320/ 4220/4150/4120.
From the F&O perspective, only Nifty 3900 put saw any significant buildup. On the other hand, 4500 and 4600 calls have been written a lot. So it looks like that market participants are far more interested to write calls as if they are expecting a level of 3900 in this expiry itself.
VIX has taken support and bouncing back to higher levels means markets are going to be choppy and volatile.
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Market lost the steam after a five day rally to edge lower in truncated week due to poor industrial growth, fall in car sales after 33-months and rebound in crude oil prices from a 3-month low. The sentiment turned bearish after the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Committee (EAC) trimmed its forecast for GDP growth in FY09 to 7.7%. It also expects inflation to shoot up to 13% shortly before it softens. The BSE Sensex and the S&P CNX Nifty settled below their psychologically important levels of 15,000 and 4,500 respectively. The barometer index BSE Sensex declined 443.64 points or 2.92% to 14,724.18 in the week ended Thursday, 14 August 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 98.80 points or 2.18% at 4,430.70 in the week.
Interest-rate sensitive sectors bore the brunt of the selling after EAC indicated a slowdown in GDP growth and its expectations of higher inflation. Also, concerns about shrinking economic growth in key global economies and continued financial sector woes had an adverse impact on the sentiment. Slowdown in industrial production hit the capital goods stocks. Metal and power stocks were the other major losers. IT stocks bucked the negative trend to close higher after the Rupee depreciated to 42.90 against the US Dollar.
Inflation had hit 12.44% and remains a major concern for the central bank. High inflation will mean that tight monetary policy stance by the central bank may continue. On 29 July 2008, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), at its quarterly policy review late month raised repo rate by 50 basis points to a seven-year high of 9% to curb inflation and dampen inflationary expectations. RBI also raised the cash reserve ratio (CRR), the proportion of funds that banks must keep on deposit with it, by 25 basis points to 9%. And this relentless monetary tightening by the RBI has finally started to catch up with industrial growth. A slowdown in the manufacturing sector pulled down India's industrial growth in June 2008 to 5.4% from 8.9% a year ago. This is however higher than 4.1% growth as per revised figures in May 2008. The index of industrial production (IIP) went up 5.2% in Q1 June 2008 compared to 10.3% in Q1 June 2007.
In the coming week, sentiment is likely to remain edgy in the near term dampened by a series of negative news. Car sales recorded a dip in sales for the first time in 33 months as interest rates, inflationary pressures and hike in fuel prices dented demand. Passenger car sales declined 1.7% to 87,724 units in July 2008 over July 2007, according to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. With no key events scheduled in the forthcoming week, the Indian stock market will closely watch global stock markets for direction. However, on the positive side, a further fall in crude oil prices may boost the sentiment. Crude oil prices have declined sharply from record high $147.27 a barrel hit on 11 July 2008. US crude settled below $114 on Friday, 15 August 2008 due to stronger US dollar.
From 21st August, NSE will introduce 39 new stocks to the F&O segment. They are ABG Shipyard, Akruti City, Asian Paints, Balaji Telefilms, Concor, Core Projects, Deccan Chronicle, Dish TV, Everonn, Firstsource, GSPL, GTL Infrastructures, HCL Infosystems, Indiabulls Real Estate, ICSA, KLG Systel, KS Oils, MIC Electronics, Mindtree Consulting, Mercator Lines, Monnet Ispat, MRF, Nava Bharat Venturs, Noida Toll, Opto, Orbit Corp, Prism Cem, PTC, Reliance Ind Infra, Sintex, SREI, Thermax, Torrent Power, TV18, UCO Bk, UTV, Voltamp, Walchandnagar.
Marketmen will also watch the review of PN notes by SEBI. It is anticipated that SEBI may extend the period for unwinding PNs, on underlying derivatives from 18 months to 24 months.
Technical View: Sensex has given a weekly close below 15050 and broken the bearish Rising Wedge pattern. Therefore, it can test the previous low of 12500 again in the coming days as a measured objective of the Wedge. However, multiple support levels exist for Sensex at the region 14400-14600. below that 14000-14050 and 13650-13700 are the levels to watch. For Nifty, 4370-4390 may provide a bit of cushion below that levels are 4320/ 4220/4150/4120.
From the F&O perspective, only Nifty 3900 put saw any significant buildup. On the other hand, 4500 and 4600 calls have been written a lot. So it looks like that market participants are far more interested to write calls as if they are expecting a level of 3900 in this expiry itself.
VIX has taken support and bouncing back to higher levels means markets are going to be choppy and volatile.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
INDIAN STOCK MARKET WEEKLY REVIEW
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK: 10th AUGUST 2008
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A host of positive factors like sharp fall in crude oil prices, recovery in rainfall and buying by foreign institutional investors helped Sensex close above crucial 15,000 mark. For the week ended August 9, the Sensex settled at an eight-week high of 15,167.82, a net rise of 511.13 points (3.49%) from the previous weekend's close. The Nifty gained 115.95 points (2.63 percent) to close the week at 4,529.50 from last weekend's close.
Crude oil prices declined sharply from a record high $147.27 a barrel hit on 11 July 2008. Oil held near $115 a barrel on weekend giving a positive breadth for the equity market. India's monsoon was above average for the first week in August 2008, helping ease a dry spell that had threatened to delay sowing of crops including rice and cotton.
Foreign institutional investors (FII)’s bought shares worth Rs 1527.90 in the first few days of August 2008 (till 7 August 2008). FIIs sold shares worth Rs 25774.20 in the calendar year 2008, till 7 August 2008. Mutual funds sold shares worth Rs 286.10 in the month of August 2008 (till 7 August 2008).
Amid some positive factors, inflation still remains a major concern for the central bank. Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 12.01% in 12 months to 26 July 2008, slightly above the previous week's annual rise of 11.98%.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 29 July 2008, raised repo rate by 50 basis points to a seven-year high of 9% to curb inflation and dampen inflationary expectations. RBI also raised the cash reserve ratio (CRR), the proportion of funds that banks must keep on deposit with it, by 25 basis points to 9%. The central bank left its reverse repo and bank rates unchanged. Responding to the RBI's monetary tightening, top lenders HDFC and ICICI Bank and a number of state run bank have raised interest rates.
In the coming week, the market will take cues from June 2008 industrial production figures which the government will release on Tuesday, 12 August 2008. Falling crude oil prices and improvement in south west monsoon will provide some relief to investors. Rising inflation remains a major worry for the markets in the medium term. Marketmen will keenly watch the development of India’s nuclear deal with US. The Board of Governor of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on 1 August 2008 unanimously adopted the India-specific safeguards agreement, a key step in operationalisation of the Indo-US nuclear deal.
For latest stock market updates, stock analysis, stock screeners and lot more login to http://www.thestockworld.com
A host of positive factors like sharp fall in crude oil prices, recovery in rainfall and buying by foreign institutional investors helped Sensex close above crucial 15,000 mark. For the week ended August 9, the Sensex settled at an eight-week high of 15,167.82, a net rise of 511.13 points (3.49%) from the previous weekend's close. The Nifty gained 115.95 points (2.63 percent) to close the week at 4,529.50 from last weekend's close.
Crude oil prices declined sharply from a record high $147.27 a barrel hit on 11 July 2008. Oil held near $115 a barrel on weekend giving a positive breadth for the equity market. India's monsoon was above average for the first week in August 2008, helping ease a dry spell that had threatened to delay sowing of crops including rice and cotton.
Foreign institutional investors (FII)’s bought shares worth Rs 1527.90 in the first few days of August 2008 (till 7 August 2008). FIIs sold shares worth Rs 25774.20 in the calendar year 2008, till 7 August 2008. Mutual funds sold shares worth Rs 286.10 in the month of August 2008 (till 7 August 2008).
Amid some positive factors, inflation still remains a major concern for the central bank. Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 12.01% in 12 months to 26 July 2008, slightly above the previous week's annual rise of 11.98%.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 29 July 2008, raised repo rate by 50 basis points to a seven-year high of 9% to curb inflation and dampen inflationary expectations. RBI also raised the cash reserve ratio (CRR), the proportion of funds that banks must keep on deposit with it, by 25 basis points to 9%. The central bank left its reverse repo and bank rates unchanged. Responding to the RBI's monetary tightening, top lenders HDFC and ICICI Bank and a number of state run bank have raised interest rates.
In the coming week, the market will take cues from June 2008 industrial production figures which the government will release on Tuesday, 12 August 2008. Falling crude oil prices and improvement in south west monsoon will provide some relief to investors. Rising inflation remains a major worry for the markets in the medium term. Marketmen will keenly watch the development of India’s nuclear deal with US. The Board of Governor of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on 1 August 2008 unanimously adopted the India-specific safeguards agreement, a key step in operationalisation of the Indo-US nuclear deal.
Sunday, August 3, 2008
INDIAN STOCK MARKET UPDATES
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK: 4th AUGUST 2008
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With the Q1 June 2008 earnings season over, global developments are likely to come back as the driving force of Indian stock market after a brief rally seen over the past few days on domestic factors like expectations for economic reforms being taken forward. The market will now closely watch movement in crude oil prices and global stock markets. A further slide in oil price may boost investor confidence in the short term. The marketmen see falling crude oil prices as a positive cue for the bourses, but expect persisting concerns for the US economy to continue to limit any major upsurge here. On the domestic front, the bullish investors are pinning their hopes on some boost from the progress in the proposed India-US nuclear deal, besides some support from banking sector, especially on expectations for progress on some key financial sector reform bills.
The highly volatile July 2008 series of derivative contracts expired on Thursday, 31 July 2008 with poor rollovers. As per reports, Nifty rollover of positions from July 2008 series to August 2008 series stood at 65.05% as compared to 70.07% in the previous series. Even in single stock futures, rollovers were relatively muted at 79.19% compared to 82.05% in the previous series.
Stubbornly high inflation still remains a concern. Again, the market trend is likely to dictated by the progress of the monsoon. India's annual monsoon rains from 17 to 23 July were 33% below the long-term average. Rainfall since 1 June 2008 has been 2% below the same average.
Stocks of the public sector units will continue to remain in focus as there are expectations that the government may push forward some economic reforms, which were stalled over the past four years due to opposition from Left parties. Left parities had stalled privatisation of state-run firms, pension reforms, higher foreign limits in insurance and more liberal norms for foreign bank.
For latest stock market updates, stock analysis, stock screeners and lot more login to http://www.thestockworld.com
For latest stock market updates, stock analysis, stock screeners and lot more login to http://www.thestockworld.com
With the Q1 June 2008 earnings season over, global developments are likely to come back as the driving force of Indian stock market after a brief rally seen over the past few days on domestic factors like expectations for economic reforms being taken forward. The market will now closely watch movement in crude oil prices and global stock markets. A further slide in oil price may boost investor confidence in the short term. The marketmen see falling crude oil prices as a positive cue for the bourses, but expect persisting concerns for the US economy to continue to limit any major upsurge here. On the domestic front, the bullish investors are pinning their hopes on some boost from the progress in the proposed India-US nuclear deal, besides some support from banking sector, especially on expectations for progress on some key financial sector reform bills.
The highly volatile July 2008 series of derivative contracts expired on Thursday, 31 July 2008 with poor rollovers. As per reports, Nifty rollover of positions from July 2008 series to August 2008 series stood at 65.05% as compared to 70.07% in the previous series. Even in single stock futures, rollovers were relatively muted at 79.19% compared to 82.05% in the previous series.
Stubbornly high inflation still remains a concern. Again, the market trend is likely to dictated by the progress of the monsoon. India's annual monsoon rains from 17 to 23 July were 33% below the long-term average. Rainfall since 1 June 2008 has been 2% below the same average.
Stocks of the public sector units will continue to remain in focus as there are expectations that the government may push forward some economic reforms, which were stalled over the past four years due to opposition from Left parties. Left parities had stalled privatisation of state-run firms, pension reforms, higher foreign limits in insurance and more liberal norms for foreign bank.
For latest stock market updates, stock analysis, stock screeners and lot more login to http://www.thestockworld.com
Monday, July 28, 2008
INDIAN STOCK MARKET UPDATES
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK: 28TH JULY 2008
THE WEEK THAT WAS
Trading for the week started on an upbeat note. Markets galloped after the Congress-led coalition government won a confidence vote in parliament late on Tuesday, 22 July 2008, raising hopes for economic reforms. The 30-share BSE Sensex surged 838.08 points or 5.94% at 14,942.28 and the broader based S&P CNX Nifty advanced 236.70 points or 5.58% at 4476.80, on that day. However the market snapped its five-day rally and sink deep in red on the back of continued profit booking and weak global cues followed by the week sentiment of seven blasts that took place in Bangalore. Markets ignored stability in crude price and steady inflation numbers. The BSE bank, oil & gas, realty and capital goods stocks witness heavy selling pressure. Power, metal, auto and IT indices were also closed negative. More pressure was seen from domestic financial institution and life insurance companies.
Reliance Industries reported 13.2% growth in net profit to Rs 4110 crore on 40.65% increase in total income to Rs 41,805 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q1 June 2007.
Reliance Communication galloped 15.60% to Rs 503.10 after it called off tie-up talks with South Africa's MTN Group, Africa's biggest mobile phone group, citing legal issues.
India’s largest listed cellular services provider by sales Bharti Airtel reported 44.86% growth in net profit to Rs 2046.79 crore on a 39.72% increase in revenue to Rs 7952.32 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q1 June 2007.
Banking shares advanced in anticipation of reforms in the banking sector after the UPA government won trust vote in parliament. The Union cabinet approved the merger of unlisted State Bank of Saurashtra with its parent State Bank of India (SBI) on Thursday, 24 July 2008.
Ranbaxy Laboratories said a UK court had quashed the country's Serious Fraud Office's (SFO) prosecution of the firm's subsidiary. Ranbaxy said in a statement the English Crown Court had also declined an application by the SFO for permission to appeal to the English Court of Appeal.
Shares of firms which are potential beneficiaries of the Indo-US nuclear deal surged after the Indian government won parliamentary vote of confidence clearing the way for the landmark civilian nuclear deal with the US. They are- Reliance Infrastructure, Alstom Projects, Rolta India, Walchandnagar Industries, Areva T&D, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC all surged during the week.
Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 11.89% in 12 months to 12 July 2008, below the previous week's annual rise of 11.91%, government data released on 24 July 2008 showed. Inflation for the week ended 17 May 2008 was revised upwards to 8.66% from 8.10%.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Volatility will rule the the bourses next week. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s monetary policy review, futures & options expiry for July 2008 series, progress of monsoon, and results of key index pivotals will dictate the trend.
Soaring inflation which is hovering near 13-year high has been a key concern for the financial markets. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to review the monetary policy on 29 July 2008. RBI may further hike short-term interest rates or the repo rate as well as statutory deposit requirements or the cash reserve ratio (CRR).
The progress of the monsoon will also be watched very closely, as it will influence the GDP figures. Monsoon rains were 33% below average in third week of July 2008, according to Indian Meteorological Department. Scant rainfall is bad news for the government, which is battling runaway inflation, which has surged to a 13-year high, largely due to a sharp rise in commodity prices.
There are expectations that the government may push forward some economic reforms which had been stalled over the past four years due to opposition from Left parties, after it won trust vote in parliament on Tuesday, 22 July 2008. Left parities had stalled privatisation of state-run firms, pension reforms, higher foreign limits in insurance and more liberal norms for foreign bank.
A sharp cooling off crude oil which touched record high of $147 per barrel early this month augurs well for the Indian economy. It is currently hovering at about $126 a barrel. Any sharp rebound in oil prices would dampen the sentiment.
Market experts however feel that the market is still cautious and there is a lot of cash on the sidelines. He believes the markets have already tested their bottom last month however, he said that a full-scale bull market is unlikely.
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THE WEEK THAT WAS
Trading for the week started on an upbeat note. Markets galloped after the Congress-led coalition government won a confidence vote in parliament late on Tuesday, 22 July 2008, raising hopes for economic reforms. The 30-share BSE Sensex surged 838.08 points or 5.94% at 14,942.28 and the broader based S&P CNX Nifty advanced 236.70 points or 5.58% at 4476.80, on that day. However the market snapped its five-day rally and sink deep in red on the back of continued profit booking and weak global cues followed by the week sentiment of seven blasts that took place in Bangalore. Markets ignored stability in crude price and steady inflation numbers. The BSE bank, oil & gas, realty and capital goods stocks witness heavy selling pressure. Power, metal, auto and IT indices were also closed negative. More pressure was seen from domestic financial institution and life insurance companies.
Reliance Industries reported 13.2% growth in net profit to Rs 4110 crore on 40.65% increase in total income to Rs 41,805 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q1 June 2007.
Reliance Communication galloped 15.60% to Rs 503.10 after it called off tie-up talks with South Africa's MTN Group, Africa's biggest mobile phone group, citing legal issues.
India’s largest listed cellular services provider by sales Bharti Airtel reported 44.86% growth in net profit to Rs 2046.79 crore on a 39.72% increase in revenue to Rs 7952.32 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q1 June 2007.
Banking shares advanced in anticipation of reforms in the banking sector after the UPA government won trust vote in parliament. The Union cabinet approved the merger of unlisted State Bank of Saurashtra with its parent State Bank of India (SBI) on Thursday, 24 July 2008.
Ranbaxy Laboratories said a UK court had quashed the country's Serious Fraud Office's (SFO) prosecution of the firm's subsidiary. Ranbaxy said in a statement the English Crown Court had also declined an application by the SFO for permission to appeal to the English Court of Appeal.
Shares of firms which are potential beneficiaries of the Indo-US nuclear deal surged after the Indian government won parliamentary vote of confidence clearing the way for the landmark civilian nuclear deal with the US. They are- Reliance Infrastructure, Alstom Projects, Rolta India, Walchandnagar Industries, Areva T&D, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC all surged during the week.
Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 11.89% in 12 months to 12 July 2008, below the previous week's annual rise of 11.91%, government data released on 24 July 2008 showed. Inflation for the week ended 17 May 2008 was revised upwards to 8.66% from 8.10%.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Volatility will rule the the bourses next week. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s monetary policy review, futures & options expiry for July 2008 series, progress of monsoon, and results of key index pivotals will dictate the trend.
Soaring inflation which is hovering near 13-year high has been a key concern for the financial markets. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to review the monetary policy on 29 July 2008. RBI may further hike short-term interest rates or the repo rate as well as statutory deposit requirements or the cash reserve ratio (CRR).
The progress of the monsoon will also be watched very closely, as it will influence the GDP figures. Monsoon rains were 33% below average in third week of July 2008, according to Indian Meteorological Department. Scant rainfall is bad news for the government, which is battling runaway inflation, which has surged to a 13-year high, largely due to a sharp rise in commodity prices.
There are expectations that the government may push forward some economic reforms which had been stalled over the past four years due to opposition from Left parties, after it won trust vote in parliament on Tuesday, 22 July 2008. Left parities had stalled privatisation of state-run firms, pension reforms, higher foreign limits in insurance and more liberal norms for foreign bank.
A sharp cooling off crude oil which touched record high of $147 per barrel early this month augurs well for the Indian economy. It is currently hovering at about $126 a barrel. Any sharp rebound in oil prices would dampen the sentiment.
Market experts however feel that the market is still cautious and there is a lot of cash on the sidelines. He believes the markets have already tested their bottom last month however, he said that a full-scale bull market is unlikely.
For market updates, stock screeners, stock analysis of indian stock market logon to http://www.thestockworld.com
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Market Update: Week starting 21st July 2008
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Market to take queues from upcoming trust vote and oil prices
The week gone by was interesting for the Indian markets as after the equities were battered at the start of the week owing to the weak sentiment caused by political uncertainty, soaring crude oil prices and higher inflation, the benchmark indices made a smart recovery during the last two days. The market saw renewed buying as global markets surged as soaring crude oil prices showed sings of abatement falling below $130 mark after hitting record high recently. Sensex gained more than 1050 points in last two days of the week. For the week ended July 18, 2008, the BSE Sensex gained 1.2%, while the NSE Nifty added 1.1%.
The barometer index BSE Sesnex rose 165.55 points or 1.23% to 13,635.40 in the week ended Friday, 18 July 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty edged up 43.25 points or 1.06% to 4,092.25 in the week. The BSE Mid-Cap index shed 125.95 points or 2.35% to 5,239.39. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 257.77 points or 3.84% to 6,455.89.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 2,235.70 crore in the month of July 2008 so far, till 17 July 2008. FIIs sold shares worth Rs 27,701 crore in the calendar year 2008. Mutual funds have bought shares worth Rs 522.90 crore in the month of July 2008 so far, till 17 July 2008.
Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 11.91% in 12 months to 5 July 2008, just above the previous week's annual rise of 11.89%, government data released today, 17 July 2008, showed. It is the highest reading since annual numbers in the current series became available in April 1995.
Reserve Bank of India on 24 June had hiked both repo rates and cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points each to tame rising inflation. There are expectations of further monetary tightening in quarterly monetary policy review of RBI scheduled on 29 July 2008.
Industrial production rose 3.8% in May 2008, much lower than revised 6.2% growth in April 2008, the government data released on Friday, 11 July 2008, showed. Industrial production growth for April 2008 revised downwards to 6.2% from earlier 7%.
Going ahead, the market will take cues from the outcome of the government’s vote of confidence in parliament scheduled on 21 July 2008 and 22 July 2008. Survival of the government in the vote of confidence will boost bourses. Movement of crude oil prices also holds key. Fears of further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India continue to haunt bourses.
Market to take queues from upcoming trust vote and oil prices
The week gone by was interesting for the Indian markets as after the equities were battered at the start of the week owing to the weak sentiment caused by political uncertainty, soaring crude oil prices and higher inflation, the benchmark indices made a smart recovery during the last two days. The market saw renewed buying as global markets surged as soaring crude oil prices showed sings of abatement falling below $130 mark after hitting record high recently. Sensex gained more than 1050 points in last two days of the week. For the week ended July 18, 2008, the BSE Sensex gained 1.2%, while the NSE Nifty added 1.1%.
The barometer index BSE Sesnex rose 165.55 points or 1.23% to 13,635.40 in the week ended Friday, 18 July 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty edged up 43.25 points or 1.06% to 4,092.25 in the week. The BSE Mid-Cap index shed 125.95 points or 2.35% to 5,239.39. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 257.77 points or 3.84% to 6,455.89.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 2,235.70 crore in the month of July 2008 so far, till 17 July 2008. FIIs sold shares worth Rs 27,701 crore in the calendar year 2008. Mutual funds have bought shares worth Rs 522.90 crore in the month of July 2008 so far, till 17 July 2008.
Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 11.91% in 12 months to 5 July 2008, just above the previous week's annual rise of 11.89%, government data released today, 17 July 2008, showed. It is the highest reading since annual numbers in the current series became available in April 1995.
Reserve Bank of India on 24 June had hiked both repo rates and cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points each to tame rising inflation. There are expectations of further monetary tightening in quarterly monetary policy review of RBI scheduled on 29 July 2008.
Industrial production rose 3.8% in May 2008, much lower than revised 6.2% growth in April 2008, the government data released on Friday, 11 July 2008, showed. Industrial production growth for April 2008 revised downwards to 6.2% from earlier 7%.
Going ahead, the market will take cues from the outcome of the government’s vote of confidence in parliament scheduled on 21 July 2008 and 22 July 2008. Survival of the government in the vote of confidence will boost bourses. Movement of crude oil prices also holds key. Fears of further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India continue to haunt bourses.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Market to remain weak and volatile: Week Starting 14th July 2008
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The market shrugged off decision of Left parties to withdraw their support to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government on the hopes this would give government an opportunity to kickstart stalled economic reforms which Left had opposed for four years. However, a surge in crude oil prices, disappointing industrial production data and inflation climbing to more than 13-year high at the end of week played the spoilsport paring earlier gains of the week with the market ending with marginal gains in the week.
Sensex rose 15.85 points or 0.12% to 13,469.86 in the week ended Friday, 11 July 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty edged up 33 points or 0.82% to 4,049 in the week. The BSE Mid-Cap index added 87.10 points or 1.65% to 5,365.34. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 263.99 points or 4.09% to 6,713.66. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 1,012.20 crore in the month of July 2008, till 9 July 2008. FIIs sold shares worth Rs 26,477.50 crore in the calendar year 2008. Mutual funds have bought shares worth Rs 712.30 crore in the month of July 2008 so far.
India’s second largest IT exporter by sales Infosys slumped 4.5% to Rs 1676.45 in the week. Infosys’ consolidated net profit as per Indian GAAP rose 4.2% to Rs 1302 crore on 6.8% growth in revenue to Rs 4854 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q4 March 2008. Infosys has forecast 24.4% to 26.6% growth in earnings per share as per Indian GAAP at between Rs 98.79 to Rs 100.51 in FY 2009 over the year ended March 2008 (FY 2008). It has forecast a between 27.5% to 29.5% growth in revenue at between Rs 21278 crore and Rs. 21622 crore in FY 2009 over FY 2008.
Growth in Index of Industrial Production (IIP) of May has declined at 3.8% as against 10.6% in same period of last year, which is below expectations. May manufacturing growth was also down at 3.9% from 11.3% (YoY) and Capital Goods at 2.5% versus 22.4%.
Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 11.89% in 12 months to 28 June 2008, above the previous week's annual rise of 11.63%, government data released on 11 July 2008, afternoon showed. It was at highest level in more than 13 years.
Crude oil has created a major havoc on global bourses. Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as $1.54, or 1.5%, to $143.19 a barrel on Friday 11 July 2008 on the New York Mercantile Exchange as Brazilian oil workers threatened a strike and on concern that Middle East and Nigerian supplies may be disrupted.
Political uncertainty will continue to haunt the bourses. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is likely to seek a vote of confidence in parliament shortly following Left’s withdrawal of support to the government over the India-US civil nuclear agreement. There was speculation that the government may choose a date around 22 July 2008 to call a special Lok Sabha session for the vote.
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The market shrugged off decision of Left parties to withdraw their support to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government on the hopes this would give government an opportunity to kickstart stalled economic reforms which Left had opposed for four years. However, a surge in crude oil prices, disappointing industrial production data and inflation climbing to more than 13-year high at the end of week played the spoilsport paring earlier gains of the week with the market ending with marginal gains in the week.
Sensex rose 15.85 points or 0.12% to 13,469.86 in the week ended Friday, 11 July 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty edged up 33 points or 0.82% to 4,049 in the week. The BSE Mid-Cap index added 87.10 points or 1.65% to 5,365.34. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 263.99 points or 4.09% to 6,713.66. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 1,012.20 crore in the month of July 2008, till 9 July 2008. FIIs sold shares worth Rs 26,477.50 crore in the calendar year 2008. Mutual funds have bought shares worth Rs 712.30 crore in the month of July 2008 so far.
India’s second largest IT exporter by sales Infosys slumped 4.5% to Rs 1676.45 in the week. Infosys’ consolidated net profit as per Indian GAAP rose 4.2% to Rs 1302 crore on 6.8% growth in revenue to Rs 4854 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q4 March 2008. Infosys has forecast 24.4% to 26.6% growth in earnings per share as per Indian GAAP at between Rs 98.79 to Rs 100.51 in FY 2009 over the year ended March 2008 (FY 2008). It has forecast a between 27.5% to 29.5% growth in revenue at between Rs 21278 crore and Rs. 21622 crore in FY 2009 over FY 2008.
Growth in Index of Industrial Production (IIP) of May has declined at 3.8% as against 10.6% in same period of last year, which is below expectations. May manufacturing growth was also down at 3.9% from 11.3% (YoY) and Capital Goods at 2.5% versus 22.4%.
Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 11.89% in 12 months to 28 June 2008, above the previous week's annual rise of 11.63%, government data released on 11 July 2008, afternoon showed. It was at highest level in more than 13 years.
Crude oil has created a major havoc on global bourses. Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as $1.54, or 1.5%, to $143.19 a barrel on Friday 11 July 2008 on the New York Mercantile Exchange as Brazilian oil workers threatened a strike and on concern that Middle East and Nigerian supplies may be disrupted.
Political uncertainty will continue to haunt the bourses. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is likely to seek a vote of confidence in parliament shortly following Left’s withdrawal of support to the government over the India-US civil nuclear agreement. There was speculation that the government may choose a date around 22 July 2008 to call a special Lok Sabha session for the vote.
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Sunday, July 6, 2008
Weekly Market Update: 7th July 2008
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The markets ended the volatile week on a high. The indices shrugged off a sluggish start and powered ahead to close with handy gains. Nifty closed at 4,016 up 90 points, while the Sensex shut shop at 13,454 up 360 points.
Volatility is also likely to continue in coming week. In the near term focus may shift to earnings season as IT bellwether Infosys Technologies kickstarts June 2008 quarter earnings season on Friday, 11 July 2008. However tough macro economic environment comprising high inflation, record high global crude oil prices and rising interest rates will continue to weigh on the sentiment in near term.
The market sentiment will also remain under pressure in view of fluid political situation at the Centre after Left, the key ally of the UPA government, hardened its stand on the Indo-US nuclear deal threatening to withdraw support from the government, if it moved ahead to operationalise the deal.
However, market analyst’s feels that selling, which is coming from hedge funds, is tapering off because most of the redemption pressures which are there on them are over as of now. So, there is not too much of selling coming from Foreign Institutional Investors, or FIIs. It is possible to hold around 12,800 levels for the time being and try and inch up to 14,000-14,500. The reason for this is that inflation, to the level of 12.5-13%, is discounted by the market to a certain extent. Secondly, on the political front, things are slowly clearing up and by next week it should be very clear what sort of support is there. Again, India's monsoon has been 21% above average so far this season. A normal monsoon may lift farm production, which accounts for a fifth of the economy, and cool the nation's fastest inflation rate in 13 years.
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The markets ended the volatile week on a high. The indices shrugged off a sluggish start and powered ahead to close with handy gains. Nifty closed at 4,016 up 90 points, while the Sensex shut shop at 13,454 up 360 points.
Volatility is also likely to continue in coming week. In the near term focus may shift to earnings season as IT bellwether Infosys Technologies kickstarts June 2008 quarter earnings season on Friday, 11 July 2008. However tough macro economic environment comprising high inflation, record high global crude oil prices and rising interest rates will continue to weigh on the sentiment in near term.
The market sentiment will also remain under pressure in view of fluid political situation at the Centre after Left, the key ally of the UPA government, hardened its stand on the Indo-US nuclear deal threatening to withdraw support from the government, if it moved ahead to operationalise the deal.
However, market analyst’s feels that selling, which is coming from hedge funds, is tapering off because most of the redemption pressures which are there on them are over as of now. So, there is not too much of selling coming from Foreign Institutional Investors, or FIIs. It is possible to hold around 12,800 levels for the time being and try and inch up to 14,000-14,500. The reason for this is that inflation, to the level of 12.5-13%, is discounted by the market to a certain extent. Secondly, on the political front, things are slowly clearing up and by next week it should be very clear what sort of support is there. Again, India's monsoon has been 21% above average so far this season. A normal monsoon may lift farm production, which accounts for a fifth of the economy, and cool the nation's fastest inflation rate in 13 years.
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Sunday, June 29, 2008
Market Outlook: Week Starting 30th June 2008
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The outlook for the market remains grim for the near term as steaming inflation, record high global crude oil prices and high interest rates threaten the pace of growth in the world's second fastest expanding major economy, driving investors to the sideline or to exit.
To tame inflationary pressures, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 24 June 2008, raised its key lending rate viz. the repo rate by 50 basis points to 8.5% with immediate effect, its highest since March 2002 and the second hike this month. The RBI had earlier on 11 June 2008, raised the repo rate, by 25 basis points to 8%. The RBI also increased the cash reserve ratio, the ratio of deposits banks must keep with it, to 8.75% from 8.25% in two 25-basis-point stages on 5 July 2008 and 19 July 2008.
Political factors will also weigh on the market due to the ongoing confrontation between the government and Left parties over the Indo-US nuclear deal. The UPA-Left coordination committee on Indo-US nuclear deal on 25 June 2008 decided to meet again later. Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee said the committee completed its discussions on all aspects of the nuclear deal. The next meeting of the committee will finalise its findings. The Left parties have already made it clear that they will withdraw their support to the government if it moves ahead with the nuclear deal. Left parties are opposing the deal saying it undermines India's independent foreign policy and nuclear weapons program. With inflation expected to remain in double-digits in the coming months, it would be suicidal for the ruling coalition to precipitate a political crisis and go for early elections, which are due by May next year.
According to the market experts, the near-term is going to be dictated by oil prices and the medium term is finding the bottom in the market. We are at a point where it is very late to be sellers and it is slightly early to stick your neck out and proclaim that this is the time to start buying. The negative that we are all sensing around is inflation, which is not really a negative, but a consequence of unanticipated inflation. The actions that may come on the policy front are driving the cost of money higher. The dollar had been the weakest currency of the globe in the last four years. A ratio graph of the dollar index vis-à-vis the rupee shows that the Indian unit still continues to be at a 10-year low against a broad basket of 6-7 major currencies.
Going forward, there are only two scenarios. The positive scenario is that the market holds out to around that 4,000 level, the news flow improves a little bit, some triggers come in, which could be crude or global markets and you get a short covering rally which gets the markets back. The other scenario of course is that markets don’t get that pullback - small attempts are made, but they get engulfed by the bad news and don’t find support at 4,000 Nifty. It actually goes down to significantly lower levels in this round, win a climactic finish before any kind of rally materialises.
The outlook for the market remains grim for the near term as steaming inflation, record high global crude oil prices and high interest rates threaten the pace of growth in the world's second fastest expanding major economy, driving investors to the sideline or to exit.
To tame inflationary pressures, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 24 June 2008, raised its key lending rate viz. the repo rate by 50 basis points to 8.5% with immediate effect, its highest since March 2002 and the second hike this month. The RBI had earlier on 11 June 2008, raised the repo rate, by 25 basis points to 8%. The RBI also increased the cash reserve ratio, the ratio of deposits banks must keep with it, to 8.75% from 8.25% in two 25-basis-point stages on 5 July 2008 and 19 July 2008.
Political factors will also weigh on the market due to the ongoing confrontation between the government and Left parties over the Indo-US nuclear deal. The UPA-Left coordination committee on Indo-US nuclear deal on 25 June 2008 decided to meet again later. Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee said the committee completed its discussions on all aspects of the nuclear deal. The next meeting of the committee will finalise its findings. The Left parties have already made it clear that they will withdraw their support to the government if it moves ahead with the nuclear deal. Left parties are opposing the deal saying it undermines India's independent foreign policy and nuclear weapons program. With inflation expected to remain in double-digits in the coming months, it would be suicidal for the ruling coalition to precipitate a political crisis and go for early elections, which are due by May next year.
According to the market experts, the near-term is going to be dictated by oil prices and the medium term is finding the bottom in the market. We are at a point where it is very late to be sellers and it is slightly early to stick your neck out and proclaim that this is the time to start buying. The negative that we are all sensing around is inflation, which is not really a negative, but a consequence of unanticipated inflation. The actions that may come on the policy front are driving the cost of money higher. The dollar had been the weakest currency of the globe in the last four years. A ratio graph of the dollar index vis-à-vis the rupee shows that the Indian unit still continues to be at a 10-year low against a broad basket of 6-7 major currencies.
Going forward, there are only two scenarios. The positive scenario is that the market holds out to around that 4,000 level, the news flow improves a little bit, some triggers come in, which could be crude or global markets and you get a short covering rally which gets the markets back. The other scenario of course is that markets don’t get that pullback - small attempts are made, but they get engulfed by the bad news and don’t find support at 4,000 Nifty. It actually goes down to significantly lower levels in this round, win a climactic finish before any kind of rally materialises.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Market Update: Week Starting 23-06-2008
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Sustained selling by foreign funds, rising inflation, high crude oil prices and political uncertainty will weigh on the sentiment of the investors in the near term. Indian stocks suffered losses for the fourth straight session today to settle at 10-month low on sustained selling pressure throughout the day. Concerns of further policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of India with inflation reaching 13-year high early this month and political uncertainty, weighed on the market sentiment today.
On the political front, in an important political development during the weekend, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) withdrew its support to the Congress-led UPA government which is unlikely to upset the UPA government’s standing. CPM, a key left party, may pull out support to the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre. Left parties have threatened to pull support to the government if it took further steps on the Indo-US nuclear deal. Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party, is reportedly in talks with the Congress on extending its support to the Indo-US nuclear deal. The nuclear energy deal appears headed for an imminent showdown that threatens to trigger early elections.
Further rising crude oil remains a major worry as India imports close to 70% of its crude requirements. The oil price has surged about 40% in this calendar year so far. Inflation, has reached the highest level in 13 years early this month. The wholesale price index rose 11.05% in the 12 months to 7 June 2008, government data released on Friday, 20 June 2008, showed. The rate was above market expectation of about 10% rise. The reading was the highest in 13 years since 6 May 1995, when it was 11.11%. The quarterly monetary policy review of RBI is scheduled on 29 July 2008 but it may take a call much earlier with inflation hitting the roof. Reserve Bank of India had on Wednesday, 11 June 2008, hiked repo rate by 25 basis points to 8% with immediate effect in an effort to contain rising inflation. A further hike in rates would impact bottomline of Indian companies. Also high interest rates may delay expansion plans of corporates, which in turn may impact future earnings growth.
However the good news is that the June-September southwest monsoon has been 45% above average so far this season. Rainfall in the four-month rainy season this year will be near-normal, or 99% of the average between 1941 and 1990, the weather office had said in April 2008. The department classifies rainfall as near normal when it's between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average. Good rains will bolster farm production which in turn may help rein in inflation.
Again advance tax collections till end of last week has risen 27% over the same period last year. Collections till the end of last week were Rs 20,700 crore up 27% from Rs 16,300 crore in the year ago period. Of this, Rs 4,980 crore has come from just 10 corporates, which is a rise of 40% over what they paid a year ago. This is another good news for the market.
But these positive triggers are failing to make any impact in the market and it is witnessing lower levels with sustained selling pressure from FIIs. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have pressed heavy sales of Indian stocks this month in the backdrop of a weakening rupee against the dollar. In June 2008, FIIs dumped shares worth Rs 7,125.20 crore (till 18 June 2008). FII outflow in calendar year 2008totaled Rs 22,494.60 crore (till 18 June 2008). On the other hand, mutual funds were net buyers of shares to the tune of Rs 1,919.90 crore in the month of June 2008, till 18 June 2008.
Volatility is expected to remain high in the near term as derivatives contracts for June series are set to expire on Thursday, 26 June 2008.
Sustained selling by foreign funds, rising inflation, high crude oil prices and political uncertainty will weigh on the sentiment of the investors in the near term. Indian stocks suffered losses for the fourth straight session today to settle at 10-month low on sustained selling pressure throughout the day. Concerns of further policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of India with inflation reaching 13-year high early this month and political uncertainty, weighed on the market sentiment today.
On the political front, in an important political development during the weekend, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) withdrew its support to the Congress-led UPA government which is unlikely to upset the UPA government’s standing. CPM, a key left party, may pull out support to the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre. Left parties have threatened to pull support to the government if it took further steps on the Indo-US nuclear deal. Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party, is reportedly in talks with the Congress on extending its support to the Indo-US nuclear deal. The nuclear energy deal appears headed for an imminent showdown that threatens to trigger early elections.
Further rising crude oil remains a major worry as India imports close to 70% of its crude requirements. The oil price has surged about 40% in this calendar year so far. Inflation, has reached the highest level in 13 years early this month. The wholesale price index rose 11.05% in the 12 months to 7 June 2008, government data released on Friday, 20 June 2008, showed. The rate was above market expectation of about 10% rise. The reading was the highest in 13 years since 6 May 1995, when it was 11.11%. The quarterly monetary policy review of RBI is scheduled on 29 July 2008 but it may take a call much earlier with inflation hitting the roof. Reserve Bank of India had on Wednesday, 11 June 2008, hiked repo rate by 25 basis points to 8% with immediate effect in an effort to contain rising inflation. A further hike in rates would impact bottomline of Indian companies. Also high interest rates may delay expansion plans of corporates, which in turn may impact future earnings growth.
However the good news is that the June-September southwest monsoon has been 45% above average so far this season. Rainfall in the four-month rainy season this year will be near-normal, or 99% of the average between 1941 and 1990, the weather office had said in April 2008. The department classifies rainfall as near normal when it's between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average. Good rains will bolster farm production which in turn may help rein in inflation.
Again advance tax collections till end of last week has risen 27% over the same period last year. Collections till the end of last week were Rs 20,700 crore up 27% from Rs 16,300 crore in the year ago period. Of this, Rs 4,980 crore has come from just 10 corporates, which is a rise of 40% over what they paid a year ago. This is another good news for the market.
But these positive triggers are failing to make any impact in the market and it is witnessing lower levels with sustained selling pressure from FIIs. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have pressed heavy sales of Indian stocks this month in the backdrop of a weakening rupee against the dollar. In June 2008, FIIs dumped shares worth Rs 7,125.20 crore (till 18 June 2008). FII outflow in calendar year 2008totaled Rs 22,494.60 crore (till 18 June 2008). On the other hand, mutual funds were net buyers of shares to the tune of Rs 1,919.90 crore in the month of June 2008, till 18 June 2008.
Volatility is expected to remain high in the near term as derivatives contracts for June series are set to expire on Thursday, 26 June 2008.
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Weekly Update 16/06/2008
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The market is likely to move in sync with global markets in the coming week. Markets across the globe suffered severe setback in the past few days triggered by spiraling global commodity prices led by crude oil. Selling was seen in metal, realty, power, FMCG and some oil stocks while buying in pharma stocks. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have pressed heavy sales in the backdrop of a weakening rupee against the dollar. In June 2008, FIIs dumped shares worth Rs 6,463.20 crore (till 12 June 2008). FII outflow in calendar year 2008 totaled Rs 21,832.60 crore (till 12 June 2008). On the other hand, mutual funds were net buyers of shares to the tune of Rs 894.89 crore in the month of June 2008, till 11 June 2008. India’s economic growth has slowed down as a result of fall in consumer demand caused by rise in interest rates. Industrial output rose 8.1% in 2007/08 (April-March) compared with 11.6% growth in 2006/07.
Fears of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) further hiking interest rates to check soaring mutli-year high inflation, which could choke overall growth of the economy, will continue to haunt investors. Earnings downgrades by brokerages amid rising input and interest costs for India Inc and drying up of global liquidity due to credit crisis remain major concern for the Indian stock market. A further hike in rates would impact bottomline of Indian companies. Also high interest rates may delay expansion plans of corporates, which in turn may impact future earnings growth.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)’s second monsoon forecast for the crucial annual south-west monsoon (June-September) due this month which may indicate spatial rainfall distribution in the main sowing month of July 2008, will be keenly watched by market men. Market men will also watch corporate advance tax payments for the first installment that falls due on 15 June 2008, which will a give a cue on expected Q1 June 2008 numbers from top Indian corporates. The income tax law requires a company to 15% the estimated tax liability for the year as advance tax in the first installment. The advance tax payment by the corporate sector will give a cue on Q1 June 2008 results.
Experts feels that the downside for the markets from here seems quite limited. This is because very clearly at lower levels decent amount of buying coming in. So in fact we may not see the markets going down much more from here. But at the same time at higher levels, you have selling coming in from people who are stuck.
The market is likely to move in sync with global markets in the coming week. Markets across the globe suffered severe setback in the past few days triggered by spiraling global commodity prices led by crude oil. Selling was seen in metal, realty, power, FMCG and some oil stocks while buying in pharma stocks. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have pressed heavy sales in the backdrop of a weakening rupee against the dollar. In June 2008, FIIs dumped shares worth Rs 6,463.20 crore (till 12 June 2008). FII outflow in calendar year 2008 totaled Rs 21,832.60 crore (till 12 June 2008). On the other hand, mutual funds were net buyers of shares to the tune of Rs 894.89 crore in the month of June 2008, till 11 June 2008. India’s economic growth has slowed down as a result of fall in consumer demand caused by rise in interest rates. Industrial output rose 8.1% in 2007/08 (April-March) compared with 11.6% growth in 2006/07.
Fears of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) further hiking interest rates to check soaring mutli-year high inflation, which could choke overall growth of the economy, will continue to haunt investors. Earnings downgrades by brokerages amid rising input and interest costs for India Inc and drying up of global liquidity due to credit crisis remain major concern for the Indian stock market. A further hike in rates would impact bottomline of Indian companies. Also high interest rates may delay expansion plans of corporates, which in turn may impact future earnings growth.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)’s second monsoon forecast for the crucial annual south-west monsoon (June-September) due this month which may indicate spatial rainfall distribution in the main sowing month of July 2008, will be keenly watched by market men. Market men will also watch corporate advance tax payments for the first installment that falls due on 15 June 2008, which will a give a cue on expected Q1 June 2008 numbers from top Indian corporates. The income tax law requires a company to 15% the estimated tax liability for the year as advance tax in the first installment. The advance tax payment by the corporate sector will give a cue on Q1 June 2008 results.
Experts feels that the downside for the markets from here seems quite limited. This is because very clearly at lower levels decent amount of buying coming in. So in fact we may not see the markets going down much more from here. But at the same time at higher levels, you have selling coming in from people who are stuck.
Saturday, May 17, 2008
MARKET OUTLOOK
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The key benchmark indices soared last week shrugging off weak industrial production data, high inflation and soaring global crude oil prices. Depreciating domestic currency against the dollar boosted export driven IT stocks.
The BSE Sensex rose 697.87 points or 4.17% to 17,434.94 in the week ended Friday, 16 May 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty rose 175.10 points or 3.51% to 5157.70 in the week. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 137.04 points or 1.96% at 7,129.70 in the week. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 114.62 points or 1.35% at 8,620.26.
The wholesale price index rose 7.83% in 12 months to 3 May 2008, higher than previous week's annual rise of 7.61%, government data released on 16 May 2008, showed. It was the highest since an annual reading of 7.93% n 6 November 2004. The annual inflation rate was 5.74% during the corresponding week of the previous year.
India's industrial production growth dropped sharply to 3% in March 2008, slowing from the previous month's unrevised 8.6%, government data showed on Monday, 12 May 2008. It was the slowest annual growth since a 2.4% rise in February 2002.
Manufacturing production rose 2.9% in March 2008 from a year earlier, compared with 8.6% growth in February 2008. Industrial output rose 8.1% in 2007/08 compared with 11.6% in 2006/07.
US light crude for June delivery surged to a record high of $126.98 on Tuesday, 13 May 2008. However, that price eased to $123.74 on 15 May 2008 as rising US distillates stocks and Iran's reassurances that it would not cut crude exports added to a strengthening US dollar to limit the upside.
India's rupee fell to the lowest level since April 2007 to 42.445 per dollar on Wednesday, 14 May 2008 on speculation record crude oil prices will widen the nation's trade and current-account deficits, increasing demand for foreign currencies. The currency also weakened after overseas investors further sold local equities.
Foreign institutional investors (FII) have, so far, sold shares worth Rs 529.10 crore this month, till 14 May 2008. They sold shares worth Rs 10,887.20 crore in calendar year 2008, till 14 May 2008. Domestic funds sold shares worth Rs 639.80 this month, till 14 May 2008.
India's biggest mobile operator by market share Bharti Airtel rose 1.09% to Rs 851.35. The firm is reportedly evaluating a bid for South Africa-based communication services provider MTN Group.
India's largest pharma company in terms of sales Ranbaxy Laboratories gained 8.79% to Rs 510.70. Ranbaxy Laboratories signed a deal to develop new anti-infective drugs for US-based Merck & Co Inc. As per the deal, Ranbaxy will carry out drug discovery and clinical development through Phase II clinical trials, while Merck will be responsible for the development and commercialisation.
India's largest private sector company in terms of market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 4.25% to Rs 2635.20. Recently, RIL had shut all of its 1,432 petrol pumps in the country after sales dropped to almost nil as it could not match the subsidised price offered by public sector competition.
Depreciation in Indian currency against the dollar generated interest in software counters as the Indian software firms earn more than half of their revenue in dollar terms. India's largest software services exporter TCS surged 6.40% to Rs 976.15, Infosys Technologies, the nation's second biggest software exporter by sales, spurted 6.89% to Rs 1871.19 and Wipro, the third largest exporter by sales, flared up 0.99% to Rs 506.15.
India's top tractor maker Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) fell 1.52% to Rs 662. The company said on Friday, 9 May 2008, it is hiking vehicle prices in the range of 1.5% to 2.5% due to rise in input costs. The price hikes will come into effect from 19 May 2008.
India's largest private sector aluminium company in terms of sales Hindalco Industries jumped 17.37% to Rs 203.70.
India's biggest private sector lender by assets ICICI Bank galloped 7.68% to Rs 941.15
India’s largest cellular services provider in terms of market capitalisation Reliance Communications gained 11.65% to Rs 601.85. Reliance Infratel, a 95% telecom infrastructure subsidiary of the company is reported to have secured the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi)’s nod for a public issue. The Anil Ambani group company may offload a 10.05% stake in Reliance Infratel to raise Rs 5,000-6,000 crore through the IPO.
Infrastructure sector output rose 9.6% in March 2008 from a year earlier, faster than a downwardly revised 7.1% growth in February 2008, data released by the government showed. Output had risen an annual 10.5% in March 2007. It rose 5.6% in the fiscal year 2007/08.
Tourist arrivals in India rose 10.7% to 3,69,677 in April 2008 over April 2007, the government data showed on Monday, 12 May 2008. Foreign exchange earnings from the sector rose 6.8% to $817 million in April 2008 over April 2007.
In the coming week the market is likely to be rangebound in the absence of any major domestic trigger, with Q4 March 2008 results nearing end. The market has reached a stage where liquidity will pull the prices up and valuations will keep them under control. The market will have its bit of volatility due to these two opposing forces. It will test the patience of investors and the nerves of the traders.
Inflation data will be closely watched as it remains as a major worry and hindrance for the domestic growth. High inflation may compel the government to take more fiscal measures to rein in prices in addition to slew of measures taken recently.
The key benchmark indices soared last week shrugging off weak industrial production data, high inflation and soaring global crude oil prices. Depreciating domestic currency against the dollar boosted export driven IT stocks.
The BSE Sensex rose 697.87 points or 4.17% to 17,434.94 in the week ended Friday, 16 May 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty rose 175.10 points or 3.51% to 5157.70 in the week. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 137.04 points or 1.96% at 7,129.70 in the week. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 114.62 points or 1.35% at 8,620.26.
The wholesale price index rose 7.83% in 12 months to 3 May 2008, higher than previous week's annual rise of 7.61%, government data released on 16 May 2008, showed. It was the highest since an annual reading of 7.93% n 6 November 2004. The annual inflation rate was 5.74% during the corresponding week of the previous year.
India's industrial production growth dropped sharply to 3% in March 2008, slowing from the previous month's unrevised 8.6%, government data showed on Monday, 12 May 2008. It was the slowest annual growth since a 2.4% rise in February 2002.
Manufacturing production rose 2.9% in March 2008 from a year earlier, compared with 8.6% growth in February 2008. Industrial output rose 8.1% in 2007/08 compared with 11.6% in 2006/07.
US light crude for June delivery surged to a record high of $126.98 on Tuesday, 13 May 2008. However, that price eased to $123.74 on 15 May 2008 as rising US distillates stocks and Iran's reassurances that it would not cut crude exports added to a strengthening US dollar to limit the upside.
India's rupee fell to the lowest level since April 2007 to 42.445 per dollar on Wednesday, 14 May 2008 on speculation record crude oil prices will widen the nation's trade and current-account deficits, increasing demand for foreign currencies. The currency also weakened after overseas investors further sold local equities.
Foreign institutional investors (FII) have, so far, sold shares worth Rs 529.10 crore this month, till 14 May 2008. They sold shares worth Rs 10,887.20 crore in calendar year 2008, till 14 May 2008. Domestic funds sold shares worth Rs 639.80 this month, till 14 May 2008.
India's biggest mobile operator by market share Bharti Airtel rose 1.09% to Rs 851.35. The firm is reportedly evaluating a bid for South Africa-based communication services provider MTN Group.
India's largest pharma company in terms of sales Ranbaxy Laboratories gained 8.79% to Rs 510.70. Ranbaxy Laboratories signed a deal to develop new anti-infective drugs for US-based Merck & Co Inc. As per the deal, Ranbaxy will carry out drug discovery and clinical development through Phase II clinical trials, while Merck will be responsible for the development and commercialisation.
India's largest private sector company in terms of market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 4.25% to Rs 2635.20. Recently, RIL had shut all of its 1,432 petrol pumps in the country after sales dropped to almost nil as it could not match the subsidised price offered by public sector competition.
Depreciation in Indian currency against the dollar generated interest in software counters as the Indian software firms earn more than half of their revenue in dollar terms. India's largest software services exporter TCS surged 6.40% to Rs 976.15, Infosys Technologies, the nation's second biggest software exporter by sales, spurted 6.89% to Rs 1871.19 and Wipro, the third largest exporter by sales, flared up 0.99% to Rs 506.15.
India's top tractor maker Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) fell 1.52% to Rs 662. The company said on Friday, 9 May 2008, it is hiking vehicle prices in the range of 1.5% to 2.5% due to rise in input costs. The price hikes will come into effect from 19 May 2008.
India's largest private sector aluminium company in terms of sales Hindalco Industries jumped 17.37% to Rs 203.70.
India's biggest private sector lender by assets ICICI Bank galloped 7.68% to Rs 941.15
India’s largest cellular services provider in terms of market capitalisation Reliance Communications gained 11.65% to Rs 601.85. Reliance Infratel, a 95% telecom infrastructure subsidiary of the company is reported to have secured the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi)’s nod for a public issue. The Anil Ambani group company may offload a 10.05% stake in Reliance Infratel to raise Rs 5,000-6,000 crore through the IPO.
Infrastructure sector output rose 9.6% in March 2008 from a year earlier, faster than a downwardly revised 7.1% growth in February 2008, data released by the government showed. Output had risen an annual 10.5% in March 2007. It rose 5.6% in the fiscal year 2007/08.
Tourist arrivals in India rose 10.7% to 3,69,677 in April 2008 over April 2007, the government data showed on Monday, 12 May 2008. Foreign exchange earnings from the sector rose 6.8% to $817 million in April 2008 over April 2007.
In the coming week the market is likely to be rangebound in the absence of any major domestic trigger, with Q4 March 2008 results nearing end. The market has reached a stage where liquidity will pull the prices up and valuations will keep them under control. The market will have its bit of volatility due to these two opposing forces. It will test the patience of investors and the nerves of the traders.
Inflation data will be closely watched as it remains as a major worry and hindrance for the domestic growth. High inflation may compel the government to take more fiscal measures to rein in prices in addition to slew of measures taken recently.
Friday, May 16, 2008
ANALYST VIEWS
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Mercator Lines has target of Rs 140-149
Technical Analyst, Rajat K Bose is of the view that one will see Mercator Lines going up much further from here. Over the medium-term, my target would be something like Rs 140 to about Rs 149 and if it crosses that then even further higher levels of say Rs 163 to Rs 165 could be possible. In fact above Rs 110 there has been a breakout and chances are that one will see Mercator Lines going up much further from here. Over the medium-term, my target would be something like Rs 140 to about Rs 149 and if it crosses that then even further higher levels of say Rs 163 to Rs 165 could be possible. The chart pattern suggests a strong bullishness over the medium-term.
[source: moneycontrol]
Buy Firstsource Solutions, target of Rs 66
PINC Research has maintained its buy rating on Firstsource Solutions with a 12-month price target of Rs 66 in its May 14, 2008 research report. "Firstsource Solutions Ltd. (FSL) reported sales of Rs 3.8 billion in Q4FY08, a flat QoQ growth. However, operating profits posted a 7.4% QoQ rise to Rs 622 million, as the previous quarter had one-off items. Net profit growth, though was subdued due to a provisioning for FCCB’s (Rs 195.6 million) which resulted in only a 1.9% QoQ growth to Rs 210 million."
"At the CMP of Rs 40, FSL is trading at a P/E of 14.3x and EV/EBIDTA of 7.6x. Though FSL could face short term uncertainties in key segments we continue to believe that its offerings are expected to witness greater traction due to the under penetration of outsourced BPO services. Hence, as FSL possesses proven capabilities to capture these opportunities, it has the potential to report robust earnings growth and stable free cash flows which should enable its valuations to align with that of its global peers. Thus, we maintain our ‘BUY’ recommendation with a 12-month price target of Rs 66," says PINC's research report.
[source: moneycontrol]
Mercator Lines has target of Rs 140-149
Technical Analyst, Rajat K Bose is of the view that one will see Mercator Lines going up much further from here. Over the medium-term, my target would be something like Rs 140 to about Rs 149 and if it crosses that then even further higher levels of say Rs 163 to Rs 165 could be possible. In fact above Rs 110 there has been a breakout and chances are that one will see Mercator Lines going up much further from here. Over the medium-term, my target would be something like Rs 140 to about Rs 149 and if it crosses that then even further higher levels of say Rs 163 to Rs 165 could be possible. The chart pattern suggests a strong bullishness over the medium-term.
[source: moneycontrol]
Buy Firstsource Solutions, target of Rs 66
PINC Research has maintained its buy rating on Firstsource Solutions with a 12-month price target of Rs 66 in its May 14, 2008 research report. "Firstsource Solutions Ltd. (FSL) reported sales of Rs 3.8 billion in Q4FY08, a flat QoQ growth. However, operating profits posted a 7.4% QoQ rise to Rs 622 million, as the previous quarter had one-off items. Net profit growth, though was subdued due to a provisioning for FCCB’s (Rs 195.6 million) which resulted in only a 1.9% QoQ growth to Rs 210 million."
"At the CMP of Rs 40, FSL is trading at a P/E of 14.3x and EV/EBIDTA of 7.6x. Though FSL could face short term uncertainties in key segments we continue to believe that its offerings are expected to witness greater traction due to the under penetration of outsourced BPO services. Hence, as FSL possesses proven capabilities to capture these opportunities, it has the potential to report robust earnings growth and stable free cash flows which should enable its valuations to align with that of its global peers. Thus, we maintain our ‘BUY’ recommendation with a 12-month price target of Rs 66," says PINC's research report.
[source: moneycontrol]
Saturday, May 10, 2008
BROKERAGE RECOMMENDATIONS
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BROKERAGE REPORTS DATED 10th MAY 2008
[source:moneycontrol.com]
PINC Research has maintained its buy rating on Pratibha Industries with a 12-month price target of Rs 480 in its May 8, 2008 research report. "Pratibha Industries Ltd’s (PIL’s) sales doubled to Rs 2.2 billion in Q4FY08. This was on back of a strong order book and increasing contribution from its HSAW pipes division. However, surge in raw material cost/sales by 478 bps led to a slide in OPM to 10.3%. This along with higher depreciation contained net profit growth to 61% at Rs 103 million. PIL’s current order book (core construction business) stands at Rs 20 billoion, with major chunk (60%) being accounted for by Water Management Projects (WMPs). While urban infrastructure projects constitute 32% of the order book, road projects account for the balance."
"At the CMP of Rs 327, PIL trades at a P/E of 8.2x and EV/EBIDTA of 5.9x FY10E earnings. A healthy order book, strong presence in WMPs and revenues from the pipe manufacturing should enable PIL to capitalise on opportunities in the infrastructure sector. We maintain a ‘BUY’ recommendation with a 12-month price target of Rs 480," says PINC research report.
[source:ndtvprofit.com]
GATEWAY DISTRIPARKS : I would recommend the investors to hold or even buy at the current levels. In the short-term, the counter has resistance at Rs 130 levels and it is likely to reach Rs 175 levels in a year’s time.: Ashu Kakkar: Tech Analyst: skypowerfinancialservices.com:
IDEA CELLULAR LTD : I would advice the investors to hold the stock. The counter is moving between Rs 95 and Rs 115 levels. But if it breaks Rs 115 levels, then it has potential to reach Rs 130 levels.: Bharat Dalal: Technical Analyst: Dawnay Day AV Financial Services.
TATA STEEL LTD : I recommend the investors to hold the stock. The counter looks strong on the charts and once it crosses Rs 920 levels, then it will move upward sharply.: Bharat Dalal: Technical Analyst: Dawnay Day AV Financial Services.
ITC LTD : I advice the investors to hold the stock. The counter has support at Rs 205levels and resistance at Rs 222 levels. It is a defensive stock and so the investors should remain invested.: Bharat Dalal: Technical Analyst: Dawnay Day AV Financial Services.
AXIS BANK LTD : I would advice the investors to hold the stock for long-term. The Q4 results of the bank were good and it is in uptrend. So, the investors should remain invested.: DD Sharma: VP-Research: Anand Rathi Sec.
WELSPUN INDIA LTD : I recommend the investors to hold the stock. Though the appreciating rupee had an impact on the margins of the company in the past, things look better now. So, I would suggest the investors to stay invested.: DD Sharma: VP-Research: Anand Rathi Sec.
GMR Infrastructure : I advice the investors to hold the stock. The company has good projects in pipeline and the prospect is impressive. So, the investors should remain invested.: VVLN Sastry: Country Head: Firstcall India Equity Advisors.
EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS LTD : I would recommend the investors to hold the stock. The counter is extremely overvalued and so the investors should look to book profits at every rally.: VVLN Sastry: Country Head: Firstcall India Equity Advisors.
ITC LTD : I would recommend the investors to hold the stock. I am bullish on the counter and it is poised to do well in the coming days. It is in uptrend at the current levels.: Hormuz Maloo: Technical Analyst: Geojit Financial Services.
UNITED SPIRITS LTD : I advice the investors to hold the stock for the long-term. I expect it to outperform the markets in the days ahead. But the investors should remain invested for longer period. : Hormuz Maloo: Technical Analyst: Geojit Financial Services.
RELIANCE PETROLEUM LTD : I recommend the investors to hold the stock. The counter will perform well in the days ahead and it will reach decent target if it crosses Rs 205 levels.: PK Agarwal: President Research: Bonanza Portfolio Ltd.
GMR Infrastructure : I advice the investors to buy the stock. The counter looks good fundamentally and has good projects in pipeline. So, the investors can bet on this counter for the long-term.: Anita Gandhi: Head Institutional Business: Arihant Capital.
RELIANCE INDUS INFRASTRUCT : I would recommend the investors to hold the stock. The counter seems to be in uptrend and Rs 1740 level will be the next target. So, the investors should remain invested.: Hemen Kapadia: CEO: chartpunditcom.
ARVIND MILLS LTD : I would recommend the investors to hold the stock. The performance of the entire textile segment wasn’t good last year. But the counter looks impressive at the current levels and I expect it to do well in the days ahead.: Anita Gandhi: Head Institutional Business: Arihant Capital.
MINDTREE CONSULTING LTD : I would advice the investors to hold the stock. The company is doing well and it has upside potential. The outlook for the IT sector is also good.: Anita Gandhi: Head Institutional Business: Arihant Capital.
Gitanjali Gems Ltd : I recommend the investors to hold the stock. The counter is in medium term uptrend and I expect it to reach Rs 300 levels in the near future.: Hemen Kapadia: CEO: chartpunditcom.
BROKERAGE REPORTS DATED 10th MAY 2008
[source:moneycontrol.com]
PINC Research has maintained its buy rating on Pratibha Industries with a 12-month price target of Rs 480 in its May 8, 2008 research report. "Pratibha Industries Ltd’s (PIL’s) sales doubled to Rs 2.2 billion in Q4FY08. This was on back of a strong order book and increasing contribution from its HSAW pipes division. However, surge in raw material cost/sales by 478 bps led to a slide in OPM to 10.3%. This along with higher depreciation contained net profit growth to 61% at Rs 103 million. PIL’s current order book (core construction business) stands at Rs 20 billoion, with major chunk (60%) being accounted for by Water Management Projects (WMPs). While urban infrastructure projects constitute 32% of the order book, road projects account for the balance."
"At the CMP of Rs 327, PIL trades at a P/E of 8.2x and EV/EBIDTA of 5.9x FY10E earnings. A healthy order book, strong presence in WMPs and revenues from the pipe manufacturing should enable PIL to capitalise on opportunities in the infrastructure sector. We maintain a ‘BUY’ recommendation with a 12-month price target of Rs 480," says PINC research report.
[source:ndtvprofit.com]
GATEWAY DISTRIPARKS : I would recommend the investors to hold or even buy at the current levels. In the short-term, the counter has resistance at Rs 130 levels and it is likely to reach Rs 175 levels in a year’s time.: Ashu Kakkar: Tech Analyst: skypowerfinancialservices.com:
IDEA CELLULAR LTD : I would advice the investors to hold the stock. The counter is moving between Rs 95 and Rs 115 levels. But if it breaks Rs 115 levels, then it has potential to reach Rs 130 levels.: Bharat Dalal: Technical Analyst: Dawnay Day AV Financial Services.
TATA STEEL LTD : I recommend the investors to hold the stock. The counter looks strong on the charts and once it crosses Rs 920 levels, then it will move upward sharply.: Bharat Dalal: Technical Analyst: Dawnay Day AV Financial Services.
ITC LTD : I advice the investors to hold the stock. The counter has support at Rs 205levels and resistance at Rs 222 levels. It is a defensive stock and so the investors should remain invested.: Bharat Dalal: Technical Analyst: Dawnay Day AV Financial Services.
AXIS BANK LTD : I would advice the investors to hold the stock for long-term. The Q4 results of the bank were good and it is in uptrend. So, the investors should remain invested.: DD Sharma: VP-Research: Anand Rathi Sec.
WELSPUN INDIA LTD : I recommend the investors to hold the stock. Though the appreciating rupee had an impact on the margins of the company in the past, things look better now. So, I would suggest the investors to stay invested.: DD Sharma: VP-Research: Anand Rathi Sec.
GMR Infrastructure : I advice the investors to hold the stock. The company has good projects in pipeline and the prospect is impressive. So, the investors should remain invested.: VVLN Sastry: Country Head: Firstcall India Equity Advisors.
EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS LTD : I would recommend the investors to hold the stock. The counter is extremely overvalued and so the investors should look to book profits at every rally.: VVLN Sastry: Country Head: Firstcall India Equity Advisors.
ITC LTD : I would recommend the investors to hold the stock. I am bullish on the counter and it is poised to do well in the coming days. It is in uptrend at the current levels.: Hormuz Maloo: Technical Analyst: Geojit Financial Services.
UNITED SPIRITS LTD : I advice the investors to hold the stock for the long-term. I expect it to outperform the markets in the days ahead. But the investors should remain invested for longer period. : Hormuz Maloo: Technical Analyst: Geojit Financial Services.
RELIANCE PETROLEUM LTD : I recommend the investors to hold the stock. The counter will perform well in the days ahead and it will reach decent target if it crosses Rs 205 levels.: PK Agarwal: President Research: Bonanza Portfolio Ltd.
GMR Infrastructure : I advice the investors to buy the stock. The counter looks good fundamentally and has good projects in pipeline. So, the investors can bet on this counter for the long-term.: Anita Gandhi: Head Institutional Business: Arihant Capital.
RELIANCE INDUS INFRASTRUCT : I would recommend the investors to hold the stock. The counter seems to be in uptrend and Rs 1740 level will be the next target. So, the investors should remain invested.: Hemen Kapadia: CEO: chartpunditcom.
ARVIND MILLS LTD : I would recommend the investors to hold the stock. The performance of the entire textile segment wasn’t good last year. But the counter looks impressive at the current levels and I expect it to do well in the days ahead.: Anita Gandhi: Head Institutional Business: Arihant Capital.
MINDTREE CONSULTING LTD : I would advice the investors to hold the stock. The company is doing well and it has upside potential. The outlook for the IT sector is also good.: Anita Gandhi: Head Institutional Business: Arihant Capital.
Gitanjali Gems Ltd : I recommend the investors to hold the stock. The counter is in medium term uptrend and I expect it to reach Rs 300 levels in the near future.: Hemen Kapadia: CEO: chartpunditcom.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
LATEST NEWS
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DATED: 8th MAY 2008
STEEL MAKERS OFFER TO CUT PRICES
Acknowledging concerns that steel prices were exerting inflationary pressure on the economy, leading steel makers on Wednesday decided to reduce prices of flat products by Rs 4,000 per tonne and those of rebars and structural steel by Rs 2,000 per tonne. This price reduction would, however, not be applicable on exports or negotiated prices.
GOVERNMENT MAY DIVEST STAKE IN VSNL
The government is considering divesting its 26 per cent residual stake in Tata Communications Ltd (formerly VSNL), a deal that could fetch the exchequer about Rs 3,650 crore at current market prices. The government holds 26.12 per cent stake in Tata Communications Ltd and going by the market price the value of the residual stake is a little over Rs 3,650 crore as the company shares are changing hands at Rs 491 a share.
GOKALDAS EXPORT MAY DELIST
Blackstone Group (foreign promoter) holding a majority 67.88% stake in the company is mulling to take the Bangalore based apparel player private this year. Indian promoters hold 20% stake in the company (as at end March 2008). The delisting process is expected to be start during second half of the current year. In addition to delisting plan, Blackstone has also reportedly expressed its willingness to buy out a few more factories which are currently owned by promoters of Gokaldas Exports.
UNION BANK TO RAISE CAPITAL
Union Bank of India is reportedly planning to raise capital by issuing fresh equity shares on rights basis to existing shareholders including government. Government holds over 55% stake in the bank. The bank management has discussed plans for rights issue with the government and is looking for further development.
MINDTREE TO BUY AZTECSOFT
MindTree is buying a majority stake in software services firm Aztecsoft for Rs 190 crore. MindTree will initially buy 32.57% of Aztecsoft at Rs 80 per share and follow it up with an open offer for an additional 20%. It will be paying Rs 190 crore in the all-cash deal. The acquisition will be funded by internal accruals.
SESA GOA TO OFFER BONUS AND STOCK SPLIT
It was announced that Sesa Goa would split shares of Rs.10 each to shares of Re.1 each and further would offer bonus shares in the ratio of 1:1. Sesa Goa reported 216.37% surge in net profit to Rs 798.30 crore on 116.21% increase in sales to Rs 1669.97 crore in Q4 March 2008 over Q4 March 2007.
FINOLEX INDUSTRIES TO SELL OFF SEZ PLOT
Finolex Industries has reportedly decided to sell off its special economic zone (SEZ) plot at Chinchwad near Pune. It is close to signing a deal with a US-based developer to sell the land for between Rs 350 crore and Rs 400 crore.
INDIA INFOLINE TO OFFER STOCK SPLIT
The board of India Infoline approved splitting each share of Rs 10 each into five shares of Rs 2 each. Further, the board also recommended a dividend of Rs 6 per share of Rs 10 each. India Infoline reported 8.47% rise in net profit to Rs 17.42 crore on 14.34% decline in sales to Rs 203.94 crore in Q4 March 2008 over Q4 March 2007.
DATED: 8th MAY 2008
STEEL MAKERS OFFER TO CUT PRICES
Acknowledging concerns that steel prices were exerting inflationary pressure on the economy, leading steel makers on Wednesday decided to reduce prices of flat products by Rs 4,000 per tonne and those of rebars and structural steel by Rs 2,000 per tonne. This price reduction would, however, not be applicable on exports or negotiated prices.
GOVERNMENT MAY DIVEST STAKE IN VSNL
The government is considering divesting its 26 per cent residual stake in Tata Communications Ltd (formerly VSNL), a deal that could fetch the exchequer about Rs 3,650 crore at current market prices. The government holds 26.12 per cent stake in Tata Communications Ltd and going by the market price the value of the residual stake is a little over Rs 3,650 crore as the company shares are changing hands at Rs 491 a share.
GOKALDAS EXPORT MAY DELIST
Blackstone Group (foreign promoter) holding a majority 67.88% stake in the company is mulling to take the Bangalore based apparel player private this year. Indian promoters hold 20% stake in the company (as at end March 2008). The delisting process is expected to be start during second half of the current year. In addition to delisting plan, Blackstone has also reportedly expressed its willingness to buy out a few more factories which are currently owned by promoters of Gokaldas Exports.
UNION BANK TO RAISE CAPITAL
Union Bank of India is reportedly planning to raise capital by issuing fresh equity shares on rights basis to existing shareholders including government. Government holds over 55% stake in the bank. The bank management has discussed plans for rights issue with the government and is looking for further development.
MINDTREE TO BUY AZTECSOFT
MindTree is buying a majority stake in software services firm Aztecsoft for Rs 190 crore. MindTree will initially buy 32.57% of Aztecsoft at Rs 80 per share and follow it up with an open offer for an additional 20%. It will be paying Rs 190 crore in the all-cash deal. The acquisition will be funded by internal accruals.
SESA GOA TO OFFER BONUS AND STOCK SPLIT
It was announced that Sesa Goa would split shares of Rs.10 each to shares of Re.1 each and further would offer bonus shares in the ratio of 1:1. Sesa Goa reported 216.37% surge in net profit to Rs 798.30 crore on 116.21% increase in sales to Rs 1669.97 crore in Q4 March 2008 over Q4 March 2007.
FINOLEX INDUSTRIES TO SELL OFF SEZ PLOT
Finolex Industries has reportedly decided to sell off its special economic zone (SEZ) plot at Chinchwad near Pune. It is close to signing a deal with a US-based developer to sell the land for between Rs 350 crore and Rs 400 crore.
INDIA INFOLINE TO OFFER STOCK SPLIT
The board of India Infoline approved splitting each share of Rs 10 each into five shares of Rs 2 each. Further, the board also recommended a dividend of Rs 6 per share of Rs 10 each. India Infoline reported 8.47% rise in net profit to Rs 17.42 crore on 14.34% decline in sales to Rs 203.94 crore in Q4 March 2008 over Q4 March 2007.
Friday, May 2, 2008
JINDAL SAW - A LONG TERM BET
CMP: Rs.653.45 (30/04/2008)
Jindal Saw (JINDAL), promoted by the O. P. Jindal group in 1984, is into manufacturing and coating of submerged arc welded pipes (SAW pipes). The company is the largest producer of saw pipes used widely in the energy sector for the transportation of oil and gas. It is India`s first and only manufacturer of such pipes using U-O-E technology. It is a market leader and a global major in providing Total Pipe Solutions to the industry.
The business operations of the company are structured into four SBUs, i.e., saw pipes, seamless tubes, ductile iron spun pipes and the US operations. The company has obtained technical assistance from US engineers and consultants, a subsidiary of US Steel Corporation, for its products. Further, the company has nine manufacturing facilities in Kosikalan (UP), Mundra (Gujarat), Nashik (Maharashtra) and Swastik Foils (New Delhi). Through affiliates, it also manages the largest pipe mill in the US.
The demand for Saw Pipes is expected to rise immensely in next few years as energy majors plans to lay national gas grid, the regional gas grids, city gas distribution networks and international pipelines. About 10,000 new oil retail outlets which would be set up by companies like Reliance, Essar, Shell and ONGC would also require cost efficient transportation viz. pipelines. The oil & gas existing pipeline infrastructure in India is minimal at about 15,000 km. Through existing infrastructure only 25% of oil products can be moved by pipelines in India, compared to 59% in the US. Realising the cost advantage, reliability and low penetration of pipelines; ONGC, Gail (India), Reliance, GSPL, Gujarat Gas and IOC have planned huge investment for laying pipelines. CLSA estimates that total demand from the oil and gas sector in India would be about 17,000 km of pipelines over the next 3-4 years. In FY2005 alone Rs. 30 billion have been planned on pipelines, 50% of which would be on pipes. The 2600-km long and $4.16 billion Iran Pakistan-India pipeline, when sanctioned would be icing on the cake. Thus, we would see JSL's revenue rising in tandem with rise in demand for Saw Pipes.
The Company has experienced a steady growth in all the business segments and expects to have improved performance in all the segments including large diameter saw pipes, ductile iron pipes and seamless tubes. The company projects better and sustainable productivity and profitability supported by its sustained healthy order book.
Considering the present CMP of Rs.650 odds it is trading at a PE Ratio of roughly 6-8times of its present earnings which seems to be quite cheap compared to its peers which are trading roughly at 20 times of its earnings and also considering the robust growth prospects the company have. It has touched a high of Rs.1221 in the last 52 Week and a low of Rs.375 in the last 52 Week. The stock has almost corrected by 50% in the recent phase of market correction and is available at a very attractive price currently and a safe bet if one wants to add it to his portfolio as a medium-long term investment.
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DISCLAIMER: The views expressed herein should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so and are for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for actual trading. You agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that you make on the basis of above expressed views, including but not limited to loss of capital. You are requested to consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment/trading decisions.
Jindal Saw (JINDAL), promoted by the O. P. Jindal group in 1984, is into manufacturing and coating of submerged arc welded pipes (SAW pipes). The company is the largest producer of saw pipes used widely in the energy sector for the transportation of oil and gas. It is India`s first and only manufacturer of such pipes using U-O-E technology. It is a market leader and a global major in providing Total Pipe Solutions to the industry.
The business operations of the company are structured into four SBUs, i.e., saw pipes, seamless tubes, ductile iron spun pipes and the US operations. The company has obtained technical assistance from US engineers and consultants, a subsidiary of US Steel Corporation, for its products. Further, the company has nine manufacturing facilities in Kosikalan (UP), Mundra (Gujarat), Nashik (Maharashtra) and Swastik Foils (New Delhi). Through affiliates, it also manages the largest pipe mill in the US.
The demand for Saw Pipes is expected to rise immensely in next few years as energy majors plans to lay national gas grid, the regional gas grids, city gas distribution networks and international pipelines. About 10,000 new oil retail outlets which would be set up by companies like Reliance, Essar, Shell and ONGC would also require cost efficient transportation viz. pipelines. The oil & gas existing pipeline infrastructure in India is minimal at about 15,000 km. Through existing infrastructure only 25% of oil products can be moved by pipelines in India, compared to 59% in the US. Realising the cost advantage, reliability and low penetration of pipelines; ONGC, Gail (India), Reliance, GSPL, Gujarat Gas and IOC have planned huge investment for laying pipelines. CLSA estimates that total demand from the oil and gas sector in India would be about 17,000 km of pipelines over the next 3-4 years. In FY2005 alone Rs. 30 billion have been planned on pipelines, 50% of which would be on pipes. The 2600-km long and $4.16 billion Iran Pakistan-India pipeline, when sanctioned would be icing on the cake. Thus, we would see JSL's revenue rising in tandem with rise in demand for Saw Pipes.
The Company has experienced a steady growth in all the business segments and expects to have improved performance in all the segments including large diameter saw pipes, ductile iron pipes and seamless tubes. The company projects better and sustainable productivity and profitability supported by its sustained healthy order book.
Considering the present CMP of Rs.650 odds it is trading at a PE Ratio of roughly 6-8times of its present earnings which seems to be quite cheap compared to its peers which are trading roughly at 20 times of its earnings and also considering the robust growth prospects the company have. It has touched a high of Rs.1221 in the last 52 Week and a low of Rs.375 in the last 52 Week. The stock has almost corrected by 50% in the recent phase of market correction and is available at a very attractive price currently and a safe bet if one wants to add it to his portfolio as a medium-long term investment.
Login to http://www.thestockworld.com/ for updates on indian stock market and instant stock search screener
DISCLAIMER: The views expressed herein should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so and are for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for actual trading. You agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that you make on the basis of above expressed views, including but not limited to loss of capital. You are requested to consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment/trading decisions.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Buy Sesa Goa, target of Rs 6300 (By ICICI Securities)
ICICI Securities has maintained its buy rating on Sesa Goa with a price target of Rs 6300 in its April 29, 2008 research report. "Sesa Goa’s Q4FY08 results beat expectations, with stellar 207% YoY net profit growth on the back of record quarterly iron-ore sales of 5mnte. Revenues were up 108% YoY and 140% QoQ to Rs 17.1 billion. EBITDA increased 208% YoY and 61% QoQ to Rs 12.2 billion with EBITDA margin at 71%."
"We are revising our FY08E, FY09E and FY10E earnings estimates upwards 18.7%, 52.5% and 62.8% respectively, given high earnings trajectory on the back of: i) positive volume surprise in the quarter as well as FY08 (12.44mnte) combined with volume guidance of 25-30% increase per annum, ii) robust pricing scenario via increased spot sales mix and 65% price increase in contract sales. Post achieving our earlier price target of Rs 3,989 per share, we are upgrading our price target to Rs 6300 per share based on FY10E P/E and EV/EBITDA of 8x and 3.9x respectively. Maintain BUY," says I-Sec's research report.
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"We are revising our FY08E, FY09E and FY10E earnings estimates upwards 18.7%, 52.5% and 62.8% respectively, given high earnings trajectory on the back of: i) positive volume surprise in the quarter as well as FY08 (12.44mnte) combined with volume guidance of 25-30% increase per annum, ii) robust pricing scenario via increased spot sales mix and 65% price increase in contract sales. Post achieving our earlier price target of Rs 3,989 per share, we are upgrading our price target to Rs 6300 per share based on FY10E P/E and EV/EBITDA of 8x and 3.9x respectively. Maintain BUY," says I-Sec's research report.
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Monday, April 28, 2008
Latest House Views dated 28th April 2008
Citigroup has maintained sell rating on Bajaj Hindusthan
HSBC Gloabl Research has downgraded Titan to Neutral rating; with a target of Rs 1362
Enam Research has kept buy rating on Welspun Gujarat ; with a target of Rs 450
ICICI Securities has maintained buy rating on Educomp Solutions
DSP Merrill Lynch has maintained buy rating on OBC; with a target of Rs 250
Sharekhan has kept buy rating on Orient Paper; with a target of Rs 80
Sharekhan has kept buy rating HDFC Bank; with a target of Rs 1571
Emkay Research has maintained buy rating on Jubilant Organosys; with a target of Rs 469
IL&FS Investsmart has maintained accumulate rating on UltraTech cement
Karvy has kept buy rating on Grasim Ind; with a target of Rs 4025
Karvy has kept buy rating on Ranbaxy; with a target of Rs 656
Emkay has given a buy rating on Greaves Cotton with a target of Rs.442
Angel Broking has given a buy rating on Ranbaxy with a target of Rs.609
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HSBC Gloabl Research has downgraded Titan to Neutral rating; with a target of Rs 1362
Enam Research has kept buy rating on Welspun Gujarat ; with a target of Rs 450
ICICI Securities has maintained buy rating on Educomp Solutions
DSP Merrill Lynch has maintained buy rating on OBC; with a target of Rs 250
Sharekhan has kept buy rating on Orient Paper; with a target of Rs 80
Sharekhan has kept buy rating HDFC Bank; with a target of Rs 1571
Emkay Research has maintained buy rating on Jubilant Organosys; with a target of Rs 469
IL&FS Investsmart has maintained accumulate rating on UltraTech cement
Karvy has kept buy rating on Grasim Ind; with a target of Rs 4025
Karvy has kept buy rating on Ranbaxy; with a target of Rs 656
Emkay has given a buy rating on Greaves Cotton with a target of Rs.442
Angel Broking has given a buy rating on Ranbaxy with a target of Rs.609
Login to http://www.thestockworld.com/ for updates on indian stock market
Friday, April 25, 2008
TheStockWorld.com is launched
TheStockWorld.com is launched
Isis Consulting unveils the most awaited, TheStockWorld.com, an innovative multi search stock screener portal designed aiming the large class of Indian stock market traders and investors for their much needed varied stock analysis reports. The site provides a warehouse of data of the Indian stock market and covers almost the entire stocks traded in the Indian bourses. The range of reports not only covers the basic price volume information of stocks across the board but also has all major advanced technical analysis reports. Searching your desired stocks has never been so easy earlier with this powerful stock search screener with add on filters.
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Advanced stock market players can even get the desired analytical reports on Stock Futures which is a unique feature the website offers. And the list continues. If you are tracking the fundamentals of the stocks then the “Financial Data Center” is where you should be. The website provides ample financial analysis reports helpful for your personal research and analysis.
It’s truly the world for the stock market investors and traders and not even the beginners are ignored here. For beginners it’s the best place where you should be as you can have all your stock market basic knowledge in the specially designed tutorial “Knowledge Center”.
So start beginning your hunt today! For more information about the portal, please visit http://www.thestockworld.com/
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